How Many seats Narendra Modi can bring for BJP??

Narendra Modi has been anointed as BJP’s pm candidate for the 2014 lok sabha elections. After the elevation, the biggest question is what will be the impact of Narendra Modi in upcoming loksabha election. As Modi is being projected as the leader of youth and development, lets look at the scenario what modi can bring for BJP-

Looking at the opinions polls conducted by media groups and analyzing India’s 29 states promise the BJP and the NDA a bit of substantial increase in parliamentary seats outside northern and western India. BJP already has an optimum share of seats in its core strongholds like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Gujarat and Goa. So, even if there’s a huge jump in the BJP’s percentage vote share in these states, the increase in its seats, if any, will not shoot up. BJP can gain in the north and west states. In the east of bihar and Jharkhand, south of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, the BJP has a negligible presence.

 

It is often said that the way for delhi passes from UP. So UP is going to be a big catchment for BJP, where BJP can triple the no of seats. Bihar will be crucial, after breaking up with JDU, BJP might increase the no of seats.

Therefore, Modi is going to get more seats than Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1998 of 183 seats. It leaves him 60-70 seats short for government formation. But for Modi, the prospect of attracting allies is far drabber than it was for Vajpayee in 1998.

So, how modi will form government by getting 220-225 seats, and leaving no choice for the alliance to join. It’s a carefully played gamble: sarsanghchalak Mohan Bhagwat chose to micromanage the BJP as never before to ensure Modi’s elevation. The hype, of course, is to maximise returns through sheer propaganda.

As with their ideological goals, the parivar’s Modi gamble is also backed by long-term calculation. Their purpose in diluting the Hindutva agenda in the 1996-2004 period, by postponing Ayo­dhya, Article 370 and the uniform civil code, was to fashion the BJP as a party of governance, making it the default option in terms of governance. Now it’s time to superpose  Hindu nationalism or the RSS’s majoritarian worldview firmly and indelibly on the BJP’s governance and development agenda. If, to achieve this, the RSS has to live with a 1996 type of interregnum, albeit with an unapologetic Hindutva worldview driving the nat­ional discourse this time, before a completely Hindutva dominated NDA-II is able to govern India, so be it.

A few days back, some senior RSS pracharaks heading a front organization of the parivar gleefully told this columnist how the default urban Hindu youth of today— tech-savvy, educated, and with global aspirations—though he may not belong to any saffron organization, is likely to be temple-going, Pakistan-loathing and wary of Muslims, more so than the previous urban generations. This, they said, was owing to the mahaul (ambience) of debate they have created. Narendra bhai, they claimed, excites the imagination and aspirations of this generation- enlightening them and merging their good will would mean constructing a long-term asset. I still have my reservations about this characterization being universally true for the new urban middle-class generation. I doubt if the modern educated Dalit Hindu in Uttar Pradesh, for instance, would share this trait.

Let’s have a look on the calculation of upcoming Lok-Sabha elections-

North-

In eight states of 154 seats, BJP-NDA can pick up 71 seats. Uttar Pradesh, where Modi’s right-hand-man Amit Shah is in charge, is getting triple number of seats of 2009.

Jammu and Kashmir-

Jammu’s Politics is more influences by local issues rather than national issues. In 2008 BJP won seats cause of amaranth land agitation but that was optimum, in 2014 BJP can win seats cause of LOC cease fire and early beheaded of indian army that can bring maximum of three seats.

 Himanchal Pradesh-

Mood of the votes here is more dominated by state leaders. BJP and Modi may not impact there in HP.

Uttar Pradesh-

Modi’s Magic is definitely going to work here. Modi infuencive power has impacted the youth of higher middle and working class. BJP is surely going to win more than 30 seats in the state. Triple what BJP got in 2009.

Madhya Pradesh-

Modi have a good relation with party worker in MP. So, Modi factor will impact in the state. If BJP comes back to power in MP, it will boost the party worker there, can BJP can get optimum no of seats.

Uttrakhand-

Modi is definitely a motivating factor for the ground level worker. Modi can a factor but in the state muslim vote also be a factor. Noone is going to make a clean sweep in the state.

Delhi -

Modi will be a factor in the state, but AAP is going to cut the votes of BJP. But all polls suggest BJP going to maximum seats in the state.

Punjab-

In Punjab, Modi factor will work to the advantage of the Akali- BJP alliance. The Punjab urban hindu always rallied behind the idea of strong central leadership, this time they have MODI.

Haryana-

BJP is completely out of the mainstream politics of the state. But modi’s recent rallies saw huge numbers of mass can get some seats for Modi.

    States                      Total LS seats          In 2009                    In 2014

J&K	6	0	<3
H.P	4	3	2
U.P	80	10	>30
M.P	29	16	>20
Uttarakhand	5	0	3
Delhi	7	0	>2
Punjab	13	1	10(BJP+SAD)
Haryana	10	0	4(BJP+INLD)

West-

In four states, of 101 seats the BJP-NDA can pick up above 60 seats. In Gujarat, the room for improvement is limited.

Maharashtra-

Narendra Modi’s elevation as pm candidate will have impact in the state. He magic is going to work on the mumbai and pune’s urban elite and higher middle class.

Gujrat-

His popularity in increasing day by day in Gujrat. The no of seats is surely going to increase, it may be a repeat of 1999 elections when BJP won 20 seats.

Rajasthan-

Assembly election in Rajasthan will play a important role. BJP is surely going to increase its number of seats in the state, but does not guarantee of 20 which congress won in 2009. But Vasundraraje and Modi factor is going to work.

Goa-

The staunch support base of the BJP is definitely going to be a important factor in Goa. The UPA’s performance have pushed them to a mindset where they think, if not UPA, then who??

State	Total LS seats	In 2009	In 2014
Maharashtra	48	9	25 (BJP+SS)
Rajasthan	25	4	>12
Gujrat	26	15	18
Goa	2	1	2

South-

Of the four prominent states of 129 seats, BJP might get slightly above then 30, What it will lose in Karnataka due to its diminution, it’s likely to make up in Andhra Pradesh.

Karnataka-

If Modi take yediyuruppa on his side, It would go well with the electorate. Modi completely connected with the youth of the state, who finds modi as a visinory leader. Youth of Karnataka now see modi without a baggage of 2002.

 Tamil Naidu-

The BJP has been building organizational structure in the state, which may play out in the 2014 elections. The modi factor will connect with the IT crowd of tamil naidu which who would like to believe that 2002 is a matter of history now. Though Jayalalitha may have a soft corner for modi, it might to tough to go with BJP.

Andhra Pradesh-

One can’t rule out modi’s connect with the youth of the A.P. BJP has now been able to get more than two seats. But with Telangana dominating the discourse, BJP might get more seats in the state.

Kerala-

A section of the upper caste hindus and Ezhavas are unhappy with the present UDF government and congress at the center for appeasing minorities. The constituencies are watch out for where BJP came in a close third.  Since, UPA unlikely to come at the center, a small consolidated hindu might vote in favor of BJP.

State	No. of LS seats	In 2009	In 2014
Karnataka	28	19	<19
Tamil Naidu	39	0	<3
Andhra Pradesh	42	0	<10
Kerala	20	0	<4

East-

Of the 13 states of 153 seats, NDA can at best hope to pick up some 50 seats. On its own, BJP is surely going to gain but as the JD(U) has some seats already.

Bihar-

The BJP and JDU will be contesting separately for the first time in the state. Both Cast and Community will play a major role. While upper caste will veer towards BJP, others may not. But BJP will gain some seats.

Jharkhand-

With the formidable presence of outfits like JVM, JMM and ASJU, BJP appears unlikely to gain seats in Jharkhand.

Chhatisgarh-

Narendra Modi will make an impact for the rural population of the state. Raman’s singh good performance will also engage the voter and BJP can gain some seats.

Orissa-

The BJP’spresence has gown down since 2008. When Naveen Patnaik snabbed ties with it. The party has 34 MLAs in 2004, seven in 2009. It has no MP. BJP’s projection Narendra Modi is likely to improve if he visits Orissa. Patnaik also has not distances himself from modi and is going to maximize any possible BJP gain with modi at the helm.

State	No of LS Seats	In 2009	In 2014
Bihar	40	12	>15
Jharkhand	14	8	8
Chhatisgarh	11	10	>10
Orissa	21	0	4
West bengal	42	1	0
Assam	14	4	5
Arunachal Pradesh	2	0	1
Sikkim	1	0	0
Meghalaya	2	0	0
Nagaland	1	0	0
Manipur	2	0	0
Tripura	2	0	0
Mizoram	1	0	0

With all the seats, BJP can bring 210-220 seats in the upcoming Lok sabha elections. But that will not be enough. For making government BJP have to attract the alliance. But still it will be many turn ups and down before the election.

Three Blunders of Nehru that India still regrets-

Jawaharlal Nehru was the first Prime Minister of India. He became the prime minister of the country when it was the most needed. He has floated the country through many tough situation by some of his intelligent decision but there were some decision that India is regretting and going to regret for a long time.

The Kashmir agreement (1947)

Before 1947, India was ruled by Britain that time there were some states directly under British control, while some were princely states which were permitted to be autonomous till they paid taxes to the British. At the time of partition, the British organized the Instrument of Accession and gave a choice to these princely states to join the territory of their choice, either India or Pakistan. Kashmir had a majority Muslim population, ruled by Hari Singh. The British wanted Hari Singh to accede to Pakistan but the Raja wanted to remain independent.

In the meantime, there were tribal incursions to Kashmir from Pakistan and the Raja decided to sign the Instrument of Accesion in favour India. But Louis Mountbatten, added an additional sentence in the Instrument of Accesion particularly for Kashmir, which now said that people of Kashmir will in future decide whether to choose India, or Pakistan.

By this time, Kashmir was already occupied by invading tribals. India fought back the tribals and chased the Pathans as far as upto Muzaffarbad. India should have used the legality of Instrument of Accession to fight for Kashmir. Instead, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru prematurely promised the UN that a referendum will be held in which Kashmiris can vote and decide their future. It was one of the major blunder committed in independent India which is still the major bone of argument between India and Pakistan.

Linguistic division of India

The worst thing happened during nehru’s working period was the linguistic division. Although Nehru was not responsible for the linguistic division but unfortunately it occurred under his regimen. Potti Sreeramulu had taken to hunger strike demanding a separate state for telugu-speaking population. Rajendra Prasad and Vallabhbhai Patel had warned Nehru of the implication of division on the basis of language, but Sreeramulu's death led Nehru to declare the formation of Andhra Pradesh.  What followed is confusion and hatred for other linguistic groups.

The demand for the formation of a separate state of Telangana, Shiv Sena's agenda to reserve Maharashtra only for the "Marathi Manus", dispute over the distribution of the Yamuna between Punjab, Haryana and Delhi are a few after effects.

Perhaps this has positive economic aspects, but the fact that regional identity is bigger than the National identity is a major threat to India.

The india-China war (1962)

Dalai Nama in 1959 crossed the McMahon Line into India and was granted political sanctuary. Indian border police began to construct check posts along the McMahon Line, and moved border patrols forward toward the frontier of Tibet as per Nehru's "Forward policy". This resulted in two clashes in 1959.

Several senior Indian Army officers considered the "forward policy" as militarily unwise, on the grounds that the Indian Army was neither logistically nor ready to deal with Chinese military power in the borders. Nehru manipulated that the Chinese would not stand up against an India backed by both the United States and Russia, ignored the advice of the officers. By the end of 1961, Nehru had sent enough Indian Army troops into Aksai Chin to establish about 43 posts on the Ladakh frontier claimed by China. Chinese combat power was organized around an Army with a strength of approximately 4,500 officers and 38,400 soldiers and  had gained extensive experience in both mountain and cold weather warfare due the Korean war.

Nehru sustained to overlook the advice of his generals about the army's poor state of readiness; he also continued to adopt that China would not or could not assert herself against India. The Cuban missile crisis gave China the perfect time to attack. The serious fighting of the 1962 China-India Border War extended from October 10, 1962, until November 20, 1962. As soon as the Cuban crisis ended at the end of October, Chinese army pulled back as US threatened to use Nuclear weapons on China.