Narendra
Modi has been anointed as BJP’s pm candidate for the 2014 lok sabha elections.
After the elevation, the biggest question is what will be the impact of
Narendra Modi in upcoming loksabha election. As Modi is being projected as the
leader of youth and development, lets look at the scenario what modi can bring
for BJP-
Looking at the opinions polls conducted
by media groups and analyzing India’s 29 states promise the BJP and the NDA a
bit of substantial increase in parliamentary seats outside northern and western
India. BJP already has an optimum share of seats in its core strongholds like
Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Gujarat and Goa. So,
even if there’s a huge jump in the BJP’s percentage vote share in these states,
the increase in its seats, if any, will not shoot up. BJP can gain in the north
and west states. In the east of bihar and Jharkhand, south of Madhya Pradesh
and Maharashtra, the BJP has a negligible presence.
It is often said that the way for delhi
passes from UP. So UP is going to be a big catchment for BJP, where BJP can
triple the no of seats. Bihar will be crucial, after breaking up with JDU, BJP
might increase the no of seats.
Therefore, Modi is going to get more seats than Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1998 of 183 seats. It leaves him 60-70 seats
short for government formation. But for Modi, the prospect of attracting allies
is far drabber than it was for Vajpayee in 1998.
So,
how modi will form government by getting 220-225 seats, and leaving no choice
for the alliance to join. It’s a carefully played gamble:
sarsanghchalak Mohan Bhagwat chose to micromanage the BJP as never before to
ensure Modi’s elevation. The hype, of course, is to maximise returns through sheer
propaganda.
As with their ideological goals, the
parivar’s Modi gamble is also backed by long-term calculation. Their purpose in
diluting the Hindutva agenda in the 1996-2004 period, by postponing Ayodhya,
Article 370 and the uniform civil code, was to fashion the BJP as a party of
governance, making it the default option in terms of governance. Now it’s time
to superpose Hindu nationalism or the RSS’s majoritarian worldview firmly
and indelibly on the BJP’s governance and development agenda. If, to achieve
this, the RSS has to live with a 1996 type of interregnum, albeit with an
unapologetic Hindutva worldview driving the national discourse this time,
before a completely Hindutva dominated NDA-II is able to govern India, so be
it.
A few days back, some senior RSS
pracharaks heading a front organization of the parivar gleefully told this columnist
how the default urban Hindu youth of today— tech-savvy, educated, and with
global aspirations—though he may not belong to any saffron organization, is likely
to be temple-going, Pakistan-loathing and wary of Muslims, more so than the
previous urban generations. This, they said, was owing to the mahaul (ambience)
of debate they have created. Narendra bhai, they claimed, excites the
imagination and aspirations of this generation- enlightening them and merging
their good will would mean constructing a long-term asset. I still have my
reservations about this characterization being universally true for the new
urban middle-class generation. I doubt if the modern educated Dalit Hindu in
Uttar Pradesh, for instance, would share this trait.
Let’s have a look on the calculation of
upcoming Lok-Sabha elections-
North-
In eight states of 154 seats, BJP-NDA can pick up 71
seats. Uttar Pradesh, where Modi’s right-hand-man Amit Shah is in charge, is
getting triple number of seats of 2009.
Jammu and Kashmir-
Jammu’s Politics is more influences by local issues
rather than national issues. In 2008 BJP won seats cause of amaranth land
agitation but that was optimum, in 2014 BJP can win seats cause of LOC cease
fire and early beheaded of indian army that can bring maximum of three seats.
Himanchal Pradesh-
Mood of the votes here is more dominated by state
leaders. BJP and Modi may not impact there in HP.
Uttar Pradesh-
Modi’s Magic is definitely going to work here. Modi
infuencive power has impacted the youth of higher middle and working class. BJP
is surely going to win more than 30 seats in the state. Triple what BJP got in
2009.
Madhya Pradesh-
Modi have a good relation with party worker in MP.
So, Modi factor will impact in the state. If BJP comes back to power in MP, it
will boost the party worker there, can BJP can get optimum no of seats.
Uttrakhand-
Modi is definitely a motivating factor for the
ground level worker. Modi can a factor but in the state muslim vote also be a
factor. Noone is going to make a clean sweep in the state.
Delhi -
Modi will be a factor in the state, but AAP is going
to cut the votes of BJP. But all polls suggest BJP going to maximum seats in
the state.
Punjab-
In Punjab, Modi factor will work to the advantage of
the Akali- BJP alliance. The Punjab urban hindu always rallied behind the idea
of strong central leadership, this time they have MODI.
Haryana-
BJP is completely out of the mainstream politics of
the state. But modi’s recent rallies saw huge numbers of mass can get some
seats for Modi.
States Total LS seats In 2009 In 2014
J&K
|
6
|
0
|
<3
|
H.P
|
4
|
3
|
2
|
U.P
|
80
|
10
|
>30
|
M.P
|
29
|
16
|
>20
|
Uttarakhand
|
5
|
0
|
3
|
Delhi
|
7
|
0
|
>2
|
Punjab
|
13
|
1
|
10(BJP+SAD)
|
Haryana
|
10
|
0
|
4(BJP+INLD)
|
West-
In four states, of 101 seats the BJP-NDA can pick
up above 60 seats. In Gujarat, the room for improvement is limited.
Maharashtra-
Narendra Modi’s elevation as pm candidate will have
impact in the state. He magic is going to work on
the mumbai and pune’s urban elite and higher middle class.
Gujrat-
His popularity in increasing day by day in Gujrat.
The no of seats is surely going to increase, it may be a repeat of 1999
elections when BJP won 20 seats.
Rajasthan-
Assembly election in Rajasthan will play a important
role. BJP is surely going to increase its number of seats in the state, but
does not guarantee of 20 which congress won in 2009. But Vasundraraje and Modi
factor is going to work.
Goa-
The staunch support base of the BJP is definitely
going to be a important factor in Goa. The UPA’s performance have pushed them
to a mindset where they think, if not UPA, then who??
State
|
Total
LS seats
|
In
2009
|
In
2014
|
Maharashtra
|
48
|
9
|
25
(BJP+SS)
|
Rajasthan
|
25
|
4
|
>12
|
Gujrat
|
26
|
15
|
18
|
Goa
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
South-
Of the four prominent states of 129 seats, BJP might
get slightly above then 30, What it will lose in Karnataka due to its diminution,
it’s likely to make up in Andhra Pradesh.
Karnataka-
If Modi take yediyuruppa on his side, It would go
well with the electorate. Modi completely connected with the youth of the
state, who finds modi as a visinory leader. Youth of Karnataka now see modi
without a baggage of 2002.
Tamil Naidu-
The BJP has been building organizational structure
in the state, which may play out in the 2014 elections. The modi factor will
connect with the IT crowd of tamil naidu which who would like to believe that
2002 is a matter of history now. Though Jayalalitha may have a soft corner for
modi, it might to tough to go with BJP.
Andhra Pradesh-
One can’t rule out modi’s connect with the youth of
the A.P. BJP has now been able to get more than two seats. But with Telangana
dominating the discourse, BJP might get more seats in the state.
Kerala-
A section of the upper caste hindus and Ezhavas are
unhappy with the present UDF government and congress at the center for
appeasing minorities. The constituencies are watch out for where BJP came in a
close third. Since, UPA unlikely to come
at the center, a small consolidated hindu might vote in favor of BJP.
State
|
No. of LS seats
|
In 2009
|
In 2014
|
Karnataka
|
28
|
19
|
<19
|
Tamil Naidu
|
39
|
0
|
<3
|
Andhra Pradesh
|
42
|
0
|
<10
|
Kerala
|
20
|
0
|
<4
|
East-
Of the 13 states of 153 seats, NDA can at best hope to pick up some 50 seats.
On its own, BJP is surely going to gain but as the JD(U) has some seats
already.
Bihar-
The BJP and JDU will be contesting separately for
the first time in the state. Both Cast and Community will play a major role.
While upper caste will veer towards BJP, others may not. But BJP will gain some
seats.
Jharkhand-
With the formidable presence of outfits like JVM,
JMM and ASJU, BJP appears unlikely to gain seats in Jharkhand.
Chhatisgarh-
Narendra Modi will make an impact for the rural
population of the state. Raman’s singh good performance will also engage the
voter and BJP can gain some seats.
Orissa-
The BJP’spresence has gown down since 2008. When
Naveen Patnaik snabbed ties with it. The party has 34 MLAs in 2004, seven in
2009. It has no MP. BJP’s projection Narendra Modi is likely to improve if he
visits Orissa. Patnaik also has not distances himself from modi and is going to
maximize any possible BJP gain with modi at the helm.
State
|
No
of LS Seats
|
In
2009
|
In
2014
|
Bihar
|
40
|
12
|
>15
|
Jharkhand
|
14
|
8
|
8
|
Chhatisgarh
|
11
|
10
|
>10
|
Orissa
|
21
|
0
|
4
|
West
bengal
|
42
|
1
|
0
|
Assam
|
14
|
4
|
5
|
Arunachal
Pradesh
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
Sikkim
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
Meghalaya
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
Nagaland
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
Manipur
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
Tripura
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
Mizoram
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
With all the seats, BJP can bring 210-220 seats in
the upcoming Lok sabha elections. But that will not be enough. For making
government BJP have to attract the alliance. But still it will be many turn ups
and down before the election.
