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Tuesday, 24 September 2013

How Many seats Narendra Modi can bring for BJP??



Narendra Modi has been anointed as BJP’s pm candidate for the 2014 lok sabha elections. After the elevation, the biggest question is what will be the impact of Narendra Modi in upcoming loksabha election. As Modi is being projected as the leader of youth and development, lets look at the scenario what modi can bring for BJP-

Looking at the opinions polls conducted by media groups and analyzing India’s 29 states promise the BJP and the NDA a bit of substantial increase in parliamentary seats outside northern and western India. BJP already has an optimum share of seats in its core strongholds like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Gujarat and Goa. So, even if there’s a huge jump in the BJP’s percentage vote share in these states, the increase in its seats, if any, will not shoot up. BJP can gain in the north and west states. In the east of bihar and Jharkhand, south of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, the BJP has a negligible presence.
 
It is often said that the way for delhi passes from UP. So UP is going to be a big catchment for BJP, where BJP can triple the no of seats. Bihar will be crucial, after breaking up with JDU, BJP might increase the no of seats.




Therefore, Modi is going to get more seats than Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1998 of 183 seats. It leaves him 60-70 seats short for government formation. But for Modi, the prospect of attracting allies is far drabber than it was for Vajpayee in 1998.

So, how modi will form government by getting 220-225 seats, and leaving no choice for the alliance to join. It’s a carefully played gamble: sarsanghchalak Mohan Bhagwat chose to micromanage the BJP as never before to ensure Modi’s elevation. The hype, of course, is to maximise returns through sheer propaganda.

As with their ideological goals, the parivar’s Modi gamble is also backed by long-term calculation. Their purpose in diluting the Hindutva agenda in the 1996-2004 period, by postponing Ayo­dhya, Article 370 and the uniform civil code, was to fashion the BJP as a party of governance, making it the default option in terms of governance. Now it’s time to superpose  Hindu nationalism or the RSS’s majoritarian worldview firmly and indelibly on the BJP’s governance and development agenda. If, to achieve this, the RSS has to live with a 1996 type of interregnum, albeit with an unapologetic Hindutva worldview driving the nat­ional discourse this time, before a completely Hindutva dominated NDA-II is able to govern India, so be it.

A few days back, some senior RSS pracharaks heading a front organization of the parivar gleefully told this columnist how the default urban Hindu youth of today— tech-savvy, educated, and with global aspirations—though he may not belong to any saffron organization, is likely to be temple-going, Pakistan-loathing and wary of Muslims, more so than the previous urban generations. This, they said, was owing to the mahaul (ambience) of debate they have created. Narendra bhai, they claimed, excites the imagination and aspirations of this generation- enlightening them and merging their good will would mean constructing a long-term asset. I still have my reservations about this characterization being universally true for the new urban middle-class generation. I doubt if the modern educated Dalit Hindu in Uttar Pradesh, for instance, would share this trait.
Let’s have a look on the calculation of upcoming Lok-Sabha elections-

North-

In eight states of 154 seats, BJP-NDA can pick up 71 seats. Uttar Pradesh, where Modi’s right-hand-man Amit Shah is in charge, is getting triple number of seats of 2009.

Jammu and Kashmir-

Jammu’s Politics is more influences by local issues rather than national issues. In 2008 BJP won seats cause of amaranth land agitation but that was optimum, in 2014 BJP can win seats cause of LOC cease fire and early beheaded of indian army that can bring maximum of three seats.

 Himanchal Pradesh-

Mood of the votes here is more dominated by state leaders. BJP and Modi may not impact there in HP.

Uttar Pradesh-

Modi’s Magic is definitely going to work here. Modi infuencive power has impacted the youth of higher middle and working class. BJP is surely going to win more than 30 seats in the state. Triple what BJP got in 2009.

Madhya Pradesh-

Modi have a good relation with party worker in MP. So, Modi factor will impact in the state. If BJP comes back to power in MP, it will boost the party worker there, can BJP can get optimum no of seats.

Uttrakhand-

Modi is definitely a motivating factor for the ground level worker. Modi can a factor but in the state muslim vote also be a factor. Noone is going to make a clean sweep in the state.

Delhi -

Modi will be a factor in the state, but AAP is going to cut the votes of BJP. But all polls suggest BJP going to maximum seats in the state.

Punjab-

In Punjab, Modi factor will work to the advantage of the Akali- BJP alliance. The Punjab urban hindu always rallied behind the idea of strong central leadership, this time they have MODI.

Haryana-

BJP is completely out of the mainstream politics of the state. But modi’s recent rallies saw huge numbers of mass can get some seats for Modi.



    States                      Total LS seats          In 2009                    In 2014
J&K
6
0
<3
H.P
4
3
2
U.P
80
10
>30
M.P
29
16
>20
Uttarakhand
5
0
3
Delhi
7
0
>2
Punjab
13
1
10(BJP+SAD)
Haryana
10
0
4(BJP+INLD)

West-

In four states, of 101 seats the BJP-NDA can pick up above 60 seats. In Gujarat, the room for improvement is limited.
Maharashtra-
Narendra Modi’s elevation as pm candidate will have impact in the state. He magic is going to work on the mumbai and pune’s urban elite and higher middle class.
Gujrat-
His popularity in increasing day by day in Gujrat. The no of seats is surely going to increase, it may be a repeat of 1999 elections when BJP won 20 seats.
Rajasthan-
Assembly election in Rajasthan will play a important role. BJP is surely going to increase its number of seats in the state, but does not guarantee of 20 which congress won in 2009. But Vasundraraje and Modi factor is going to work.
Goa-
The staunch support base of the BJP is definitely going to be a important factor in Goa. The UPA’s performance have pushed them to a mindset where they think, if not UPA, then who??

State
Total LS seats
In 2009
In 2014
Maharashtra
48
9
25 (BJP+SS)
Rajasthan
25
4
>12
Gujrat
26
15
18
Goa
2
1
2

South-

Of the four prominent states of 129 seats, BJP might get slightly above then 30, What it will lose in Karnataka due to its diminution, it’s likely to make up in Andhra Pradesh.
Karnataka-

If Modi take yediyuruppa on his side, It would go well with the electorate. Modi completely connected with the youth of the state, who finds modi as a visinory leader. Youth of Karnataka now see modi without a baggage of 2002.

 Tamil Naidu-

The BJP has been building organizational structure in the state, which may play out in the 2014 elections. The modi factor will connect with the IT crowd of tamil naidu which who would like to believe that 2002 is a matter of history now. Though Jayalalitha may have a soft corner for modi, it might to tough to go with BJP.

Andhra Pradesh-

One can’t rule out modi’s connect with the youth of the A.P. BJP has now been able to get more than two seats. But with Telangana dominating the discourse, BJP might get more seats in the state.

Kerala-

A section of the upper caste hindus and Ezhavas are unhappy with the present UDF government and congress at the center for appeasing minorities. The constituencies are watch out for where BJP came in a close third.  Since, UPA unlikely to come at the center, a small consolidated hindu might vote in favor of BJP.

State
No. of LS seats
In 2009
In 2014
Karnataka
28
19
<19
Tamil Naidu
39
0
<3
Andhra Pradesh
42
0
<10
Kerala
20
0
<4


East-

Of the 13 states of 153 seats, NDA can at best hope to pick up some 50 seats. On its own, BJP is surely going to gain but as the JD(U) has some seats already.

Bihar-

The BJP and JDU will be contesting separately for the first time in the state. Both Cast and Community will play a major role. While upper caste will veer towards BJP, others may not. But BJP will gain some seats.

Jharkhand-

With the formidable presence of outfits like JVM, JMM and ASJU, BJP appears unlikely to gain seats in Jharkhand.

Chhatisgarh-

Narendra Modi will make an impact for the rural population of the state. Raman’s singh good performance will also engage the voter and BJP can gain some seats.


Orissa-

The BJP’spresence has gown down since 2008. When Naveen Patnaik snabbed ties with it. The party has 34 MLAs in 2004, seven in 2009. It has no MP. BJP’s projection Narendra Modi is likely to improve if he visits Orissa. Patnaik also has not distances himself from modi and is going to maximize any possible BJP gain with modi at the helm.



State
No of LS Seats
In 2009
In 2014
Bihar
40
12
>15
Jharkhand
14
8
8
Chhatisgarh
11
10
>10
Orissa
21
0
4
West bengal
42
1
0
Assam
14
4
5
Arunachal Pradesh
2
0
1
Sikkim
1
0
0
Meghalaya
2
0
0
Nagaland
1
0
0
Manipur
2
0
0
Tripura
2
0
0
Mizoram
1
0
0

With all the seats, BJP can bring 210-220 seats in the upcoming Lok sabha elections. But that will not be enough. For making government BJP have to attract the alliance. But still it will be many turn ups and down before the election.